We are facing a situation in the aviation industry, which many may very well describe as an approaching “Perfect Storm.” For years, we have heard people in and out of the industry say there will be a pilot shortage. Current pilots, in search of their first jobs or those seeking better positions, have been asking, “So…, where is this pilot shortage?”
Many within the industry, outside of the industry, and in government believe the pilot shortage is very real. From various sources, many from differing areas of the industry report problems will approach the aviation business over the next couple of decades. CBS reports it in this video report dated December 2010.
In the past, there have been questions revolving around this idea of a pilot shortage. At first, it was coming with the retirement of the World War II pilots; then the Korean era pilots; now, with the Vietnam vets departing the cockpits, we are hearing of the shortage again.
This time, there are aspects of this prediction completely different from the past. For one, the world’s population is growing exponentially. Another factor is the addition of 30,000 more aircraft into the equation.
This Perfect Storm is creating a shortfall of 466,650 pilots worldwide with as many as 97,350 in North America alone. These are big numbers.
Additionally, as Captain Domenic Di Irio points out in the CBS interview, aviation training is expensive and many have chosen to pursue other career interests. This fact alone will have an incredible impact on the numbers, not to mention on those who already have the credentials to work in the field. If you hold your commercial, instrument, and multi-engine ratings, you are almost hired.
Essentially, we are looking at a situation that many predicted before that did not happen as the industry analysts foretold. Now many are skeptical. This is akin to the little boy crying wolf.
It now becomes a question of what young pilots today want to believe. Is the industry crying wolf one more time, or is the industry going to become really “unglued” in a way no one ever predicted before now? What is required of today’s young pilots is, as always, perseverance.
One of the saddest things I have seen in the past is a promising young pilot making the decision to leave aviation, only to suddenly see a surge in hiring. And because the young pilot has quit and gone on to work in another field, they were, in essence, no longer in queue for a hiring position with the airlines. When they realized their mistake, by the time they were up to speed again after renting airplanes or flight instructing to get back on the step again, it was too late.
As with any endeavor, the key in this business is always to remain ready. Unfortunately, it will take great dedication and sacrifice to stay positioned for the airlines; flight instruction is the best way to show continual and steady flying.
This, too, requires extreme dedication.
It boils down to the question of, “What do you really want to do with your life?”
If you want to be the captain of an airliner, you must stay the course until you get there. It might come earlier than you think. It might also come later.
However, you will never make it to the left seat if you quit.
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© 2010 J. Clark
